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The Next Marques Colston: Mining Rounds 3-7 of the Draft 2008

There is an old adage that says "April Showers bring May flowers, but for most fantasy players, all take care in April, is the NFL Draft. There is a lot of difference makers that come out of Project rookie season and become instant fantasy options, but there have been some home run hitters, and if you were lucky enough to have plucked out a Randy Moss or Anquan Boldin during his rookie year, it was like having an extra player for free at the top two rounds of the draft. Two seasons ago, Reggie Bush was dynamite in the last few weeks the money and account wins in the playoffs a lot, but "Pan Down, we have Bush" was not exactly a sleeper. He went anywhere from Round 1 to Round 3. Most of the successful rookies come from the first two rounds of the NFL draft, and this year is no different, but if you can find the same kind of quality of a Rookie taken later in the project and flying under the radar, then that is what could help to break the bank. Look no further than the season gathered Marques Colston during his rookie fantasy football.

Drawing 3-7 rounds of the NFL draft is a hell of a resource, because frankly, most people do not even consider it. In fact, many publications and so-called experts who are providing information for fellow competitors classification draft day, will do nothing more than the list of intermediate round draft picks with signs saying "no fantasy impact." In his defense, it's not really an area to spend a lot of time covering because they are lucky enough to find a player a year from these rounds. But if you think about Colston and the type of impact it had, why not take a long look at these players. In fact, if you look at the past five seasons in the NFL, rookies are not super impact made from the 3rd round and beyond. In 2006 we had Colston was drafted in the seventh round he caught 70 balls for 1.038 yards and 8 TD. In 2003, we had Domanick Davis, a 4th round selection that took over the starting job in Week 6 RB for the Texans. It was a house fire because they broke the patio 1000 rushing mark, scored 8 times, and added 47 receptions over 10 starts. In 2004-2006, there was no one to make much of an impact. So in the past 5 seasons, that's a success rate of 40% for rounds 3-7 rookie has had a major impact. Only 2 guys broke out, but did so great and if you go back in time, you will see that both Davis and Colston were in many of the eventual championship teams in his league.

Looking at the many players in the last five rounds of this project can be overwhelming, as 66 players were taken in fantasy offensive scoring positions. We can, however, quickly sever 66 to a manageable number, until we have a set of players who should be monitoring the amount of August and give us a base of guys who have more potential to possibly become the next Colston or Davis.

In rounds 3-7, there were (66) players at the offensive skill positions fantasy. (QB, RB, TE, WR, K). So that's our base to start. Of those 66 players, you can eliminate the 9 Quarterbacks. If a low starting QB this year, these guys still are not taking over, so they are not factors this season. In the case of a madness that end up having to play, I do not want to be part of it anyway, so it cuts the group of players we are looking at 57.

Then there were 10 TE selected, and we can go ahead and remove them to be factors this season. Most of these players were taken by teams TE is put in, so it should not be much fantasy production from these TE.

Now up to 47 players on our list, we can start looking at situations those guys are not going to be able to get on the field due to the numbers in front of them no matter what they do. Even if they shine as a rookie, the people before them, are a brilliant superb, so that cuts another 39 guys off our list.

You can then go ahead and cut the two kickers who were selected from our list. You may both start, however kickers will not give Colston we are estimating the impact to eliminate them.

This now gives us a series of six guys that work we can focus on candidates that are more optimal to have a chance to be the last diamond in the rough this season. These players all walk into a situation where they have a chance to play if they perform well in training camp, which is the main reason on the list. Also have in common that are brokers or recipient, key positions in fantasy football. In no particular order, let's take a look at them.

Brokers

# 1), third Kevin Smith Rd. Detroit Lions (Central Florida)
Smith should not be a surprise as it is already being touted as the next feature back in Detroit. When the Lions cut Kevin Jones this offseason, Smith immediately became someone who watch. The Lions are thin at RB, with the only two guys in front of Smith Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun. Smith was a monster in Central Florida, which declaring early for the draft after his first season, accumulating 450 carries so that they not be concerned. It is also important to note that the Lions are changing to a new running scheme that Kevin Smith ran in college. He has a great opportunity to not only play significant minutes, but to win the starting job in Detroit, at some point this year.

# 2) Steve Slaton third-Road. Houston Texans (West Virginia)
It boggles my mind that Steve Slaton has fallen so much in the minds of everyone. Upon reaching last season, Slaton was projected among the top 10 selection in the NFL, and everything fell away because of one half of a season in which he underperformed. Something was off with Slaton and I think it was an injury. Slaton was a touchdown machine in the West University Virginia and came out as a true junior. Has big hands and large escape velocity. View Pitt tape of his second season, where he had over 100 yards, often catching balls lined up split down the flanks or in the slot. He excels in a zone blocking system and that is what is going to Houston. Also enters a situation with not a lot of competition. Ahman Green and Chris Brown are old and have injury problems. Darius Walker is not even near as good as Slaton. Slaton has the skills Marshall Faulk and is a fantastic bed in Houston this season. Dare I say it could be the reincarnation of Domanick Davis from his rookie season?

N 3) Tim Hightower-fifth Rd. Arizona (Richmond)
Hightower is a dynamo. Edgerrin James has not been made younger and he's just not the same edge lived in Indy. Hightower did not take his job barring an injury, but keep an eye on it. He rushed for almost 2,000 yards and 20TD during his last year to 1-AA Richmond. Not that it is not 1-A, but Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Walter Payton all went 1-AA, so that in mind.

The receptors

# 4) Earl Bennett-third Rd. Chicago (Vanderbilt)
Any WR in Chicago should be worth seeing as the Bears lost their two starting receivers 2007. Bennett caught 80 balls in his first year in a Vandy when Jay Cutler was the quarterback. He went on to repeat those numbers in the next few seasons in the tough SEC and that led him to Chicago. This guy has a great opportunity to see the field as a rookie for the Bears who are very thin at quality WR.

# 5) Harry Douglas Rd third. Atlanta (Louisville)
It is always good for a rookie to come in under a new coaching regime, and allowing them to enter with a clean slate, and put some veterans on a short lead. The Falcons are a team that is totally in need of a makeover from 2007 and is going to get. Douglas was dynamite in college catching passes in many Louisville. Has big hands and have a chance to join a young Atlanta WR corp. Rowdy Roddy White finally stepped in last season, but after him, there is an opportunity for catches for other guys, and Douglas may have the opportunity to some of them.

# 6) Lavelle Hawkins-fourths Rd. Tennessee (California)
Possibly the worst WR Corp all live in Tennessee football. Vince Young suffered badly a lack of production from this unit last season and must improve. Hawkins was adequate in college, but is in a situation where if you play well training camp, he may be a factor at WR for the Titans.

About the Author

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